imminent supply shock.
“The geopolitical consequences of a possible dismantling of the JCPOA would likely to play a larger and long-lasting role in pushing oil prices higher than short-term policy uncertainty,” Michael Cohen, Barclays director of energy market research, said in a research note published Monday.
Trump is likely to either announce he will not be renewing a waiver on Iranian sanctions or reaffirm his firm opposition to the global pact, Barclays analysts said. However, regardless of Tuesday’s announcement, they predicted the current Iran nuclear deal would “not survive under President Trump.”
“And in the next couple of years, this more hawkish foreign policy could fuel already elevated tensions in the Middle East, specifically in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, as the hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia escalate,” Cohen added.